Interesting series of news this week around Lehman brothers Holdings – they are looking to reemerge from Chapter 11 and settle a fight with JP Morgan in the coming weeks. In the JPMorgan settlement, they will take back $9 billion in illiquid securities and real estate in exchange for cash and collateral. According to a BusinessWeek article, the judge responsible for mediation suggested “that the purpose of the deal with JPMorgan, which would saddle Lehman with billions of dollars in illiquid securities, might be ‘to prime the pump of Lamco.’”
“Lehman’s plan involves the creation of Lamco, a subsidiary that would serve as an asset-management adviser for the estate. It would oversee the commercial real estate, residential mortgages, private equity and other remaining assets and sell them off to generate proceeds for Lehman creditors.”* Sources seem to indicate that Lehman Brothers Holdings has $30 to $40 billion USD (depending on JPMorgan settlement) to spin off into Lamco. Other sources suggest Lamco is soliciting third-party assets to manage for a fee and is also seeking outside investors for Lamco. Are we witnessing a Pheonix rising from the ashes?
“According to the 93-page plan, filed Monday by Lehman's lead bankruptcy lawyers at Weil, Gotshal & Manges, Lamco will manage real estate, private equity, and derivatives assets held by the defunct investment bank in order to sell them off at a premium to generate proceeds for Lehman creditors.”**
Sources:
*http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/lehman-bankruptcy-estate-proposes-reorganization-plan/
**http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2010/03/lehmanreorg.html
'Circular Number 6' explores current political and business issues and how they relate to the financial services industry. Special attention is applied to financial crime and complaince.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
Wachovia Latest Bank to Pay Big for Violating AML Abuses
In 2009, we saw record breaking fines against banks violating US anti-money laundering (AML) rules. A Wall Street Journal article noted that in a securities filing, submitted Feb. 26, Wells Fargo said that the Wachovia bank unit "is engaged in discussions to resolve this matter by paying penalties and entering into agreements concerning future conduct."
Eugene Yoo, an AML expert at Actimize, a financial crime and compliance software solutions provider to the financial services industry, recently shared his top trends in AML watch list filtering. He points to the fact that fines are growing, with two of the top three highest fines ever in 2009. Based on his prediction, we should expect mega fines in 2010, maybe even topping the astronomical half billion USD Credit Suisse was fined. Even though Wachovia’s alleged violations happened before the acquisition, this may not bode well for Wells Fargo shareholders.
Eugene Yoo, an AML expert at Actimize, a financial crime and compliance software solutions provider to the financial services industry, recently shared his top trends in AML watch list filtering. He points to the fact that fines are growing, with two of the top three highest fines ever in 2009. Based on his prediction, we should expect mega fines in 2010, maybe even topping the astronomical half billion USD Credit Suisse was fined. Even though Wachovia’s alleged violations happened before the acquisition, this may not bode well for Wells Fargo shareholders.
Labels:
AML,
financial crime,
Wachovia,
watch list filtering,
Wells Fargo
US and UK Getting Tougher on Market Abuse and Insider Trading

Head of UK Financial Services Authority this week said that Britain’s insider trading within the financial services sector is at an “unacceptably high level” A recent article in UK MSN speculated that the recent conviction of insider trader Malcolm Calvert pushed the FSA into action. A 10% rise in regulatory fees will help fund a boost of FSA staff to 3,700, enabling it to become much more pro-active in “tackling the high-risk culture” in financial services.
Similarly, on the other side of the pond, the US financial crisis and the revelation of massive Ponzi schemes from the likes of Madoff and others pressed the SEC into action too. Securities Industry News reported that “a new market abuse unit is building a sophisticated database to go on the offense to catch insider trading.” The SEC will increase its annual spending 11 percent to $1.23 billion, which includes a $12 million boost for technology.
Is there such a thing as a completely fair and open market? Maybe not, but it is certainly something we must strive toward.
Similarly, on the other side of the pond, the US financial crisis and the revelation of massive Ponzi schemes from the likes of Madoff and others pressed the SEC into action too. Securities Industry News reported that “a new market abuse unit is building a sophisticated database to go on the offense to catch insider trading.” The SEC will increase its annual spending 11 percent to $1.23 billion, which includes a $12 million boost for technology.
Is there such a thing as a completely fair and open market? Maybe not, but it is certainly something we must strive toward.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Obama and Bankers Peacocking on Capitol Hill

Obama’s meeting on this week with the CEOs of most of the major banks in the US was nothing more than political posturing from both sides – peacocking for Joe the Plumber by the financial services industry and Obama. A day before, Obama called bankers “fat cats” and after the meeting, the CEOs claimed there is a ‘disconnect’ between their personal wishes and the actions of the lobbyists their firms spent $300 million on to fight proposed regulatory reform.
The inherent conflict of interest between the financial services industry and that of the government is inevitable. For profit businesses exist to make money and consumers’ best interest is not always the most profitable route. The banks will continue to fight new regulations and Obama's reform plan, introduced earlier this year, will continue to be watered down as it finishes its cycles in the House and Senate.
The inherent conflict of interest between the financial services industry and that of the government is inevitable. For profit businesses exist to make money and consumers’ best interest is not always the most profitable route. The banks will continue to fight new regulations and Obama's reform plan, introduced earlier this year, will continue to be watered down as it finishes its cycles in the House and Senate.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
It is time for the US to sever its ties with Israel
United States’ Parasitic Ally Has Become a Costly Distraction
It is sad to see the current healthcare overhaul debate between Democrats and Republicans take such a nasty turn. We are all Americans, right? Shouldn’t we provide for our own? The crux of the disagreement is cost, yet we spend more money per capita on Israeli citizens than we do on our own. Israel has become a costly distraction that we can no longer afford, not to mention that the relationship does not have the same geopolitical value it once did when Israel was our only Middle East foothold.
Let’s be honest. Israel is a selfish nation that is only interested in expanding its wealth, military power and geographical footprint. It will and can only do so at the cost of others. Consider a couple recent examples:

Israel consistently treats the civilian population in Gaza inhumanly, as documented by many sources, denying Gaza contact with the outside world by imposing blockades to stop humanitarian aid from entering the region. Israel’s 2009 Gaza invasion is probably the most sickening example - even Zionist Richard Goldstone, who led the United Nations Human Rights Council investigation, expressed shock over the “gross violations of the laws of war”.
On top of the atrocious crimes against humanity, think about how this affects the US taxpayer… We foot the bill for Israel’s invasion of Gaza by providing it with the military technology (i.e. planes, missiles, weapons, etc.) and financial and political backing. Using US planes and tanks, Israel crushed Gaza stone throwers and innocent civilians, then left the US to clean up its mess – which will now cost the US taxpayers an additional $900+ million USD on top of the usual $6 billion or so that we send annually.
From a geopolitical perspective, the US now has control of other Middle Eastern assets in Iraq and Afghanistan. Anyway you look at it, Israel is a bad ally and a bad investment. It is clearly time for the US to drop Israel from our ‘friends and family circle’.
It is sad to see the current healthcare overhaul debate between Democrats and Republicans take such a nasty turn. We are all Americans, right? Shouldn’t we provide for our own? The crux of the disagreement is cost, yet we spend more money per capita on Israeli citizens than we do on our own. Israel has become a costly distraction that we can no longer afford, not to mention that the relationship does not have the same geopolitical value it once did when Israel was our only Middle East foothold.
Let’s be honest. Israel is a selfish nation that is only interested in expanding its wealth, military power and geographical footprint. It will and can only do so at the cost of others. Consider a couple recent examples:

Israel consistently treats the civilian population in Gaza inhumanly, as documented by many sources, denying Gaza contact with the outside world by imposing blockades to stop humanitarian aid from entering the region. Israel’s 2009 Gaza invasion is probably the most sickening example - even Zionist Richard Goldstone, who led the United Nations Human Rights Council investigation, expressed shock over the “gross violations of the laws of war”.
On top of the atrocious crimes against humanity, think about how this affects the US taxpayer… We foot the bill for Israel’s invasion of Gaza by providing it with the military technology (i.e. planes, missiles, weapons, etc.) and financial and political backing. Using US planes and tanks, Israel crushed Gaza stone throwers and innocent civilians, then left the US to clean up its mess – which will now cost the US taxpayers an additional $900+ million USD on top of the usual $6 billion or so that we send annually.
From a geopolitical perspective, the US now has control of other Middle Eastern assets in Iraq and Afghanistan. Anyway you look at it, Israel is a bad ally and a bad investment. It is clearly time for the US to drop Israel from our ‘friends and family circle’.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Credit & Debit Card Processors Are Losing Your Data But May Not Be Liable For Your Personal Losses

While it is unlikely you have ever heard of Heartland Payment Systems or RBS WorldPay or any other of the dozens of networks your credit and debit card transactions travel through to process your morning latte purchase, hackers are all too aware of these treasure chests. Processors are likely to be the top targets for mass data compromise and identity theft in the coming years yet surprisingly, these back office firms may not be responsible for your losses.
According to Ronald Mann, a professor and co-chairman of the Charles E. Gerber Transactional Studies Program at Columbia Law School, payment processors that experience data losses may be protected against class action lawsuits if they can prove PCI compliance. This may be the case with the massive Heartland Payment Systems breach, which may have lost data on over 100 million transactions. Stop to think about the size of this breach – it roughly equates to a transaction a person for 1/3 of the US population!
There have already been three class action lawsuits filed against Heartland, but Mann says it would be very difficult for plaintiffs to prove negligence since Heartland should be able to prove it met the industry’s PCI (Payment Card Industry) standard. PCI is arguably ineffective at stopping, let alone detecting today’s sophisticated cyber attacks. Avivah Litan, distinguished analyst at Gartner, recently said that card processors are more vulnerable to attacks because while payment industry rules dictate that credit card data is encrypted while being stored at retailers, processors and banks it does not have to be encrypted while being transferred on private networks. While banks and retailers can also communicate on private networks, the attacks against processors is a much newer phenomenon and can produce the biggest number of transactions since processors by nature are consolidating activities across many retailers and banks.
Take for example, a simplified card transaction: You go to your favorite coffee shop and order a latte. You swipe a credit, debit or gift card at the register. In sub-second speed the transaction goes from the retailer to the processor, to your bank to check funds and to the retailer to approve the purchase. Once approved, the processor queues your transaction in a batch process to transfer the funds from your bank account to the retailer’s bank account, usually within 24 hours.
There are dozens of major processors across the US that handle transactions from millions of vendors and banks. Processors are a major hub of the system and are therefore a lucrative target for fraudsters. Currently if a processor complies with the PCI standard, which is clearly not tight enough to protect all network vulnerabilities, that processor should not be held accountable for current and future fraud against compromised accounts. In most cases the card issuer or banks protect the consumer, but always. Debit and gift cards shift some or all liability to the consumer and any future fraud perpetrated against an individual on different account may be hard to tie back to one particular data loss event, especially since processors and banks will not generally tell you when your information has been compromised!
So what’s the moral of the story – even if you are very careful with your own information, your identity can still be stolen. Protect yourself where you can, and be cognizant of all public data breaches.
(The following were sourced for this article: Defense Seen for Heartland vs. Suits; Cardline; February 10, 2009 and Credit Card Hackers Find New, Rich Targets; MSNBC; Bob Sullivan; January 23, 2009)
According to Ronald Mann, a professor and co-chairman of the Charles E. Gerber Transactional Studies Program at Columbia Law School, payment processors that experience data losses may be protected against class action lawsuits if they can prove PCI compliance. This may be the case with the massive Heartland Payment Systems breach, which may have lost data on over 100 million transactions. Stop to think about the size of this breach – it roughly equates to a transaction a person for 1/3 of the US population!
There have already been three class action lawsuits filed against Heartland, but Mann says it would be very difficult for plaintiffs to prove negligence since Heartland should be able to prove it met the industry’s PCI (Payment Card Industry) standard. PCI is arguably ineffective at stopping, let alone detecting today’s sophisticated cyber attacks. Avivah Litan, distinguished analyst at Gartner, recently said that card processors are more vulnerable to attacks because while payment industry rules dictate that credit card data is encrypted while being stored at retailers, processors and banks it does not have to be encrypted while being transferred on private networks. While banks and retailers can also communicate on private networks, the attacks against processors is a much newer phenomenon and can produce the biggest number of transactions since processors by nature are consolidating activities across many retailers and banks.
Take for example, a simplified card transaction: You go to your favorite coffee shop and order a latte. You swipe a credit, debit or gift card at the register. In sub-second speed the transaction goes from the retailer to the processor, to your bank to check funds and to the retailer to approve the purchase. Once approved, the processor queues your transaction in a batch process to transfer the funds from your bank account to the retailer’s bank account, usually within 24 hours.
There are dozens of major processors across the US that handle transactions from millions of vendors and banks. Processors are a major hub of the system and are therefore a lucrative target for fraudsters. Currently if a processor complies with the PCI standard, which is clearly not tight enough to protect all network vulnerabilities, that processor should not be held accountable for current and future fraud against compromised accounts. In most cases the card issuer or banks protect the consumer, but always. Debit and gift cards shift some or all liability to the consumer and any future fraud perpetrated against an individual on different account may be hard to tie back to one particular data loss event, especially since processors and banks will not generally tell you when your information has been compromised!
So what’s the moral of the story – even if you are very careful with your own information, your identity can still be stolen. Protect yourself where you can, and be cognizant of all public data breaches.
(The following were sourced for this article: Defense Seen for Heartland vs. Suits; Cardline; February 10, 2009 and Credit Card Hackers Find New, Rich Targets; MSNBC; Bob Sullivan; January 23, 2009)
Friday, February 6, 2009
“People really hate you, and they are starting to hate us just for hanging out with you”

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank this week outlined his plan for financial reform. While his plan was, as we may have expected, a little vague and non-committal, he did make a comment that clearly shows his concern about his own public perception and re-electability. He said he has been telling bankers:
"Here's the problem: People really hate you, and they are starting to hate us just for hanging out with you. And you have to help us deal with it. You have to avoid being stupid."
Hey Barney, not only will the American public continue to think you are a nimrod for your part in the financial crisis and delayed response with the first bail-out package, now the bankers are going to hate you too for calling them stupid.
(Quote sourced from American Banker, Fed First as Hill Tackles Reg Reform in 2 Parts, Feb 4, 2009)
"Here's the problem: People really hate you, and they are starting to hate us just for hanging out with you. And you have to help us deal with it. You have to avoid being stupid."
Hey Barney, not only will the American public continue to think you are a nimrod for your part in the financial crisis and delayed response with the first bail-out package, now the bankers are going to hate you too for calling them stupid.
(Quote sourced from American Banker, Fed First as Hill Tackles Reg Reform in 2 Parts, Feb 4, 2009)
Monday, November 24, 2008
Unemployed IT Workers to Drive Increase in Fraud
That is the hypothesis Avivah Litan, security analyst at Gartner proposes in a November Forbes article. She said that “in recent months, banking clients have been warning her of a spike in fraud, much of it based on the use of stolen financial data. There's been a marked increase in the number of attacks and the number of successful fraud attempts.”
Litan cites the growing pool of unemployed IT workers as a major fraud catalyst because they possess the “technical abilities needed to steal data or perpetrate fraud” and intimate knowledge of former employers’ IT systems.
Desperation often pushes regularly rule-abiding people into taking risks they wouldn’t in normal circumstances. "In times like these, people need the cash," says Litan. I am afraid she has identified yet another serious threat to the financial system and your bank account in the coming months.
Litan cites the growing pool of unemployed IT workers as a major fraud catalyst because they possess the “technical abilities needed to steal data or perpetrate fraud” and intimate knowledge of former employers’ IT systems.
Desperation often pushes regularly rule-abiding people into taking risks they wouldn’t in normal circumstances. "In times like these, people need the cash," says Litan. I am afraid she has identified yet another serious threat to the financial system and your bank account in the coming months.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Words of Wisdom from Omaha's Oracle
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Somber Demographic and Spending Trends Poised to Create Major Headache for Next President
Washington Post Columnist Robert Samuelson today outlined the demographical and economic trends behind the current slow down of consumer spending. While we are all familiar with the current credit crunch, he also points out that natural “life cycle” spending will also contribute to a consumer slow down as the US population continues to age.This is a very somber but important insight as people borrow and spend more in their 30s and 40s and slow in their 50s and 60s as they borrow less and incomes decline.

As you can see in the chart based on US Census Bureau data, a substantial percentage of the US population will be in the 50+ ranges moving forward. Real estate and investment income can prop up incomes and increase spending as it has for much of the last decade, but the likelihood of that happening in the next two to five years is slim. I would assume that wealthy older Americans should have conservatively constructed portfolios in the current trough and housing doesn’t look
to recover anytime soon either. For an even gloomier look into our economic future, look at where AARP says older American’s income comes from as of 2004 – Social Security…So what does this mean for politics? Samuelson goes on to say that “The ebbing shopping spree may challenge the next president in ways that none of the candidates has yet contemplated.” While all candidates may have contemplated a slow start to their term, have they dreamt about what it will feel like to bear the brunt of public frustration in a long-term recession? This sets the stage for a likely four and out scenario.
(charts from wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=362)
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Spitzer Caught in His Own Mouse Trap?

Some may not be aware that Spitzer was an important catalyst in developing the market for robust transactional monitoring technologies that the financial services industry today uses to uncover money laundering, fraud and market manipulation.
Eliot Spitzer as Attorney General was a major proponent for the use of transactional monitoring technologies within the securities industry. As such, he was intimately aware of the types of sophisticated ‘suspicious’ scenarios analytics can uncover from mountains of data. Data mining and advanced analytics accurately distinguish one or two market manipulating trades from hundreds-of-millions of legitimate trades. The same goes for uncovering suspicious money transfers and fraud within the billions of transactions performed every day in the global marketplace.
Several factors probably contributed to the filing of the SARs (Suspicious Activity Report) that fueled the Spitzer’s investigation. To understand why his banks are required to file SARs with the US federal government, you have to understand what goes into uncovering ‘suspicious activities’. The US BSA (Bank Secrecy Act) and the Patriot Act define banks’ responsibilities around uncovering and reporting money-laundering activities. To do so, each bank account holder and entity a bank deals with is AML (anti-money laundering) risk profiled and ultimately given a numerical score. This score measures one’s potential to launder money. The three leading variables in Spitzer’s case that likely increased his AML risk score include:
1. PEP list – As a ‘Politically Exposed Person’, Spitzer is almost certainly on PEP lists used by the banks he holds accounts with. Banks cross check these lists and score PEPs a bit higher than the general population.
2. Structuring – A common money-laundering strategy is to break a large transaction into smaller transactions below the well known must report $10,000 threshold. Spitzer’s multiple wire transactions to one entity totaled around $19,000. The group of transactions would have scored higher in any AML monitoring system.
3. Shell Companies – The business entities used by Spitzer had many characteristics of what banks would label a ‘shell company’. This would include entities that do not have complete filings, confirmed addresses, our unclear business models. Simply put, many launders set up entities distance the money source from the recipient. Banks have models to look for this type of movement and score transactions that flow through suspected shell companies as higher risk.
While there are dozens, if not hundreds of other variables that go into creating a risk score for a single or set of financial transactions, these are likely the top three that moved Spitzer’s Emperor’s Club transactions to the top of his bank’s list of possible suspicious activities. Once his bank’s system raised the red flag, they were obligated to report it to FinCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network). This database is then accessible to many levels of federal, state and local investigative agencies.
The real questions mark in this case is why where these particular SARs investigated? The overwhelming majority of SARs in the FinCEN database go uninvestigated, and yet Spitzer’s seemed to pop up immediately. That should lead us to believe that someone had an ongoing investigation into Spitzer or the entities he was wiring money to, or Spitzer’s political enemies were on the prowl for dirt on New York’s Steamroller Governor.
Spitzer pursued investment banks and brokerages after the tech bubble, and extracted $1.4 billion in fines and payments for pumping up stock prices. Additionally he went after mutual fund brokers for giving preferential treatment to hedge funds and key clients. This resulted in new regulations around separation of research and banking in investment banks and ‘late trades’ and market timing trade monitoring. In the process, Spitzer insulted, defaced and pissed off a good percentage of Manhattan’s business leaders.
What can we learn from the Spitzer story? If you have powerful enemies and know that all your financial transactions will be examined under a microscope, you shouldn’t document your shady and/or illegal activities. And at a minimum if you can’t control yourself, at least explore the option of paying in cash…
Eliot Spitzer as Attorney General was a major proponent for the use of transactional monitoring technologies within the securities industry. As such, he was intimately aware of the types of sophisticated ‘suspicious’ scenarios analytics can uncover from mountains of data. Data mining and advanced analytics accurately distinguish one or two market manipulating trades from hundreds-of-millions of legitimate trades. The same goes for uncovering suspicious money transfers and fraud within the billions of transactions performed every day in the global marketplace.
Several factors probably contributed to the filing of the SARs (Suspicious Activity Report) that fueled the Spitzer’s investigation. To understand why his banks are required to file SARs with the US federal government, you have to understand what goes into uncovering ‘suspicious activities’. The US BSA (Bank Secrecy Act) and the Patriot Act define banks’ responsibilities around uncovering and reporting money-laundering activities. To do so, each bank account holder and entity a bank deals with is AML (anti-money laundering) risk profiled and ultimately given a numerical score. This score measures one’s potential to launder money. The three leading variables in Spitzer’s case that likely increased his AML risk score include:
1. PEP list – As a ‘Politically Exposed Person’, Spitzer is almost certainly on PEP lists used by the banks he holds accounts with. Banks cross check these lists and score PEPs a bit higher than the general population.
2. Structuring – A common money-laundering strategy is to break a large transaction into smaller transactions below the well known must report $10,000 threshold. Spitzer’s multiple wire transactions to one entity totaled around $19,000. The group of transactions would have scored higher in any AML monitoring system.
3. Shell Companies – The business entities used by Spitzer had many characteristics of what banks would label a ‘shell company’. This would include entities that do not have complete filings, confirmed addresses, our unclear business models. Simply put, many launders set up entities distance the money source from the recipient. Banks have models to look for this type of movement and score transactions that flow through suspected shell companies as higher risk.
While there are dozens, if not hundreds of other variables that go into creating a risk score for a single or set of financial transactions, these are likely the top three that moved Spitzer’s Emperor’s Club transactions to the top of his bank’s list of possible suspicious activities. Once his bank’s system raised the red flag, they were obligated to report it to FinCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network). This database is then accessible to many levels of federal, state and local investigative agencies.
The real questions mark in this case is why where these particular SARs investigated? The overwhelming majority of SARs in the FinCEN database go uninvestigated, and yet Spitzer’s seemed to pop up immediately. That should lead us to believe that someone had an ongoing investigation into Spitzer or the entities he was wiring money to, or Spitzer’s political enemies were on the prowl for dirt on New York’s Steamroller Governor.
Spitzer pursued investment banks and brokerages after the tech bubble, and extracted $1.4 billion in fines and payments for pumping up stock prices. Additionally he went after mutual fund brokers for giving preferential treatment to hedge funds and key clients. This resulted in new regulations around separation of research and banking in investment banks and ‘late trades’ and market timing trade monitoring. In the process, Spitzer insulted, defaced and pissed off a good percentage of Manhattan’s business leaders.
What can we learn from the Spitzer story? If you have powerful enemies and know that all your financial transactions will be examined under a microscope, you shouldn’t document your shady and/or illegal activities. And at a minimum if you can’t control yourself, at least explore the option of paying in cash…
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
US Recession to Push into 2009
According to CNN, “President Bush acknowledged that the economy has slowed down but said the United States is not headed toward a recession.” Actually Bush expect a feeble tax rebate of $600 to $1200 for households earning less than $75K per individual or $150K filing jointly to pull us back from the brink of calamity. 
This directly contradicts many unbiased experts on the topic. The consensus seems to be that the economy may pick back up, but not until 2009.
Optimists beware: there will continue to be blood on the streets. Be especially leery of the financial services sector. Lehman announced another 5% lay off yesterday. Rumors are abounding that other major firms, including Merrill Lynch, will swing the ax again soon.
Just look at a couple quotes below. Who do you think has a better read of the US economy: Bush or Blackstone?
"We are in the midst of a severe financial crisis," said [Blackstone] Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman. "How long will it last? I am not certain, no one knows the answer."
Blackstone's Hope
Do Dark Days Mean Opportunity?
By Peter LattmanMarch 11, 2008
“Last week’s awful employment data from the US ended all arguments about whether the US is heading for a recession: it is already in one.”
The Short View: US recession
By John Authers, Investment Editor
March 10 2008

This directly contradicts many unbiased experts on the topic. The consensus seems to be that the economy may pick back up, but not until 2009.
Optimists beware: there will continue to be blood on the streets. Be especially leery of the financial services sector. Lehman announced another 5% lay off yesterday. Rumors are abounding that other major firms, including Merrill Lynch, will swing the ax again soon.
Just look at a couple quotes below. Who do you think has a better read of the US economy: Bush or Blackstone?
"We are in the midst of a severe financial crisis," said [Blackstone] Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman. "How long will it last? I am not certain, no one knows the answer."Blackstone's Hope
Do Dark Days Mean Opportunity?
By Peter LattmanMarch 11, 2008
“Last week’s awful employment data from the US ended all arguments about whether the US is heading for a recession: it is already in one.”
The Short View: US recession
By John Authers, Investment Editor
March 10 2008
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Give me Liberty or give me…a National Security Letter? F#$% that!

Bear Arms while You Still have the Chance
What happened to the rebellious Patriot spirit that preferred death to government intrusion into one’s personal liberties? The US Founding Fathers would roll over in their graves if they could see what we’ve so easily given up post 9/11. This is a serious situation that, if not corrected, will lay waste to the founding principles we all hold dear.
The FBI admits that it used ‘national security letters’ to improperly obtain “telephone logs, banking records and other personal records on thousands of Americans from 2003 to 2005.”[1] Actually, the FBI issued over 150,000 national security letters from 2003 to 2005. Alarmingly, these incidents are not the only violation of our liberties. The government maintains secret courts that issue orders without proper oversight from people who value citizens’ liberties.
I liken this to the story about the frog and boiling water. If you drop a frog into a boiling pot of water, it will immediately recognize the threat and jump out. If you place a frog into a cool pot and slowly heat it to a rolling boil, the frog will sit unaware until it is fully cooked. As a generation that witnessed 9/11, we did not imagine the lasting repercussions of the Patriot Act when it was quickly passed to protect American citizens. One could easily argue that drastic measures were necessary at the time, and as someone that watched two towers fall in my City, I can honestly say the situation demanded an equivocally deliberate response. I argue now that, like the frog, we did not notice the fire someone turned on below us.
Now that the dust has settled and we have had a chance to read and measure the full impact of the Patriot Act, it is obvious that it is simply un-American document. It contradicts everything we value as a country. What rights do we have left now that they have taken away our privacy? Can we still bear arms? I’d recommend stocking up because many government agencies can now walk into your home at any time without reason under the guise of ‘national security’.
I urge you to contact your Senator and/or Congressperson and demand they fix our system to protect your privacy.
What happened to the rebellious Patriot spirit that preferred death to government intrusion into one’s personal liberties? The US Founding Fathers would roll over in their graves if they could see what we’ve so easily given up post 9/11. This is a serious situation that, if not corrected, will lay waste to the founding principles we all hold dear.
The FBI admits that it used ‘national security letters’ to improperly obtain “telephone logs, banking records and other personal records on thousands of Americans from 2003 to 2005.”[1] Actually, the FBI issued over 150,000 national security letters from 2003 to 2005. Alarmingly, these incidents are not the only violation of our liberties. The government maintains secret courts that issue orders without proper oversight from people who value citizens’ liberties.
I liken this to the story about the frog and boiling water. If you drop a frog into a boiling pot of water, it will immediately recognize the threat and jump out. If you place a frog into a cool pot and slowly heat it to a rolling boil, the frog will sit unaware until it is fully cooked. As a generation that witnessed 9/11, we did not imagine the lasting repercussions of the Patriot Act when it was quickly passed to protect American citizens. One could easily argue that drastic measures were necessary at the time, and as someone that watched two towers fall in my City, I can honestly say the situation demanded an equivocally deliberate response. I argue now that, like the frog, we did not notice the fire someone turned on below us.
Now that the dust has settled and we have had a chance to read and measure the full impact of the Patriot Act, it is obvious that it is simply un-American document. It contradicts everything we value as a country. What rights do we have left now that they have taken away our privacy? Can we still bear arms? I’d recommend stocking up because many government agencies can now walk into your home at any time without reason under the guise of ‘national security’.
I urge you to contact your Senator and/or Congressperson and demand they fix our system to protect your privacy.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
SocGen the latest Casualty of One Nightmare Employee?

Jerome Kerviel socked it to SocGen with a whopping $7.16 billion loss. The biggest loss incurred by a rogue employee to date, which has rocked the foundation of a bank recently considered a pillar of the French and global economies. Now there is a good chance the bank will cease to exist in its current structure. The bank’s planned $8 billion stock offering may buy some time, but it may be too little too late as BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole circle an institution already dazed by a wallop of US sub-prime debt.
The shear size of positions and trading losses by Kerviel shocks and surprises the general public, but there are those that can remember similar situations not too long ago. Rogue employees bring down companies every single day. Brian Hunter lost $6.6 billion at Amaranth in 2006, collapsing the hedge fund. Nick Leeson brought down Barings in 1995 after losing $1.3 billion in improper trades. Kidder Peabody crashed and burnt after bond trader Orlando Joseph Jett racked up $330 million in losses.
What do these stories have in common? Poor risk management. In every single case, employees gambled firm assets against unmeasured risk…and lost. We learn time and again that without the proper controls, employees will burn you. The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) estimates that US organizations lose 5 percent of annual revenue to fraud. With a U.S. Gross Domestic Product for 2006 of $13.037 trillion, this suggests losses around $638 billion among all US organizations, despite existing anti-fraud controls.
The very technology put in place to improve trader productivity and to execute on more and more complicated transactions of more and more complex securities is sometimes blamed for rogue employee behavior. The availability of technology makes it easier in some cases to hide suspicious transactions. From the criminal’s perspective, the anonymity of bits and bytes make executing fraud a faceless victimless crime.
The shear size of positions and trading losses by Kerviel shocks and surprises the general public, but there are those that can remember similar situations not too long ago. Rogue employees bring down companies every single day. Brian Hunter lost $6.6 billion at Amaranth in 2006, collapsing the hedge fund. Nick Leeson brought down Barings in 1995 after losing $1.3 billion in improper trades. Kidder Peabody crashed and burnt after bond trader Orlando Joseph Jett racked up $330 million in losses.
What do these stories have in common? Poor risk management. In every single case, employees gambled firm assets against unmeasured risk…and lost. We learn time and again that without the proper controls, employees will burn you. The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) estimates that US organizations lose 5 percent of annual revenue to fraud. With a U.S. Gross Domestic Product for 2006 of $13.037 trillion, this suggests losses around $638 billion among all US organizations, despite existing anti-fraud controls.
The very technology put in place to improve trader productivity and to execute on more and more complicated transactions of more and more complex securities is sometimes blamed for rogue employee behavior. The availability of technology makes it easier in some cases to hide suspicious transactions. From the criminal’s perspective, the anonymity of bits and bytes make executing fraud a faceless victimless crime.
Don’t expect the SocGen story to be the last of its type. Companies need to take note of the techniques used by Kerviel and fight technology with technology. Without proper risk management and internal controls, we’ll see more banks losing firm and customer assets.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
A vote for George W. Bush is a vote for…Change and Diversity?

Something about that doesn’t quite make sense, but in a sense it is true.
Think about this – if George W. Bush hadn’t been such a horrible President on so many fronts, the likelihood of another old, white, Protestant, Republican male being elected to the Whitehouse this November would be pretty high.
Thanks to W’s incompetent performance as President, he has insured that a vote for anyone is a vote for ‘change’. Beyond that, his performance will probably push a democratic minority or woman into the top seat for the first time ever. Who would have guessed that W would be the biggest catalyst for promoting diversity in the world’s most powerful leadership role? -Not him!
Think about this – if George W. Bush hadn’t been such a horrible President on so many fronts, the likelihood of another old, white, Protestant, Republican male being elected to the Whitehouse this November would be pretty high.
Thanks to W’s incompetent performance as President, he has insured that a vote for anyone is a vote for ‘change’. Beyond that, his performance will probably push a democratic minority or woman into the top seat for the first time ever. Who would have guessed that W would be the biggest catalyst for promoting diversity in the world’s most powerful leadership role? -Not him!
Friday, December 7, 2007
Birth, Death and Taxes…Well At Least if You’re Poor in the U.S.

I am pleasantly surprised to see one of the top earners in the US take on an unpopular topic for the rich and powerful – tax rates for the wealthy. Warren Buffet claims that he pays 17.7 percent in payroll taxes on income of $66 million, while his receptionist pays 30 percent on $60 thousand.
When asked why there is this disparity, he responded: “…all the rich in one way or another - have lobbyists, you know, coming out of their ears. And are down there whenever something threatens their favored status, they are in Washington en mass. And who is there representing the person that pays the payroll tax? I don't know of any group that is going around saying, ‘It's too tough for these people who - barely eke out a living to be paying 15 percent on payroll taxes.’”
That is a simple enough explanation. If our political system is driven by big business, the politicians will look out for the interests of big business. At some point the wealthy minority hijacked the U.S. government, or maybe it was always set up to protect them solely. One could certainly argue that.
One thing is for sure – the tax system in the U.S. needs to be fixed.
For more on this read this article in the Times or this CNBC interview.
When asked why there is this disparity, he responded: “…all the rich in one way or another - have lobbyists, you know, coming out of their ears. And are down there whenever something threatens their favored status, they are in Washington en mass. And who is there representing the person that pays the payroll tax? I don't know of any group that is going around saying, ‘It's too tough for these people who - barely eke out a living to be paying 15 percent on payroll taxes.’”
That is a simple enough explanation. If our political system is driven by big business, the politicians will look out for the interests of big business. At some point the wealthy minority hijacked the U.S. government, or maybe it was always set up to protect them solely. One could certainly argue that.
One thing is for sure – the tax system in the U.S. needs to be fixed.
For more on this read this article in the Times or this CNBC interview.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Homeland Security Says Al-Qaida "Most Serious" Threat to US
Like we didn't already know Al-Qaida hates us in the US. A recent Homeland Security report outlines the threat and explains that Bush's 'take the war to them' theory didn't quite smoke 'em out of their holes. As a matter of fact, Al-Qaida leadership has remained almost entirely intact and they have more global support now than ever!
"Today, our nation is safer, but we are not yet safe," said Bush in an accompanying letter with the White House report. -Bullshit. What he should have said was "I screwed the pooch and now generations of American citizens here after will have to pay the price."
Even more disturbing, as reported by MSNBC and Reuters, the report says the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah might consider attacking the US if the US becomes "a direct threat to the group or Iran, its principal sponsor."
So if Bush continues to have his way, he could have everyone in the Middle East against the US by the end of his second term. ...Well everyone except for his Oil buddies in Saudi Arabia. I think they are quite happy with what he has accomplished with the price of crude.
"Today, our nation is safer, but we are not yet safe," said Bush in an accompanying letter with the White House report. -Bullshit. What he should have said was "I screwed the pooch and now generations of American citizens here after will have to pay the price."
Even more disturbing, as reported by MSNBC and Reuters, the report says the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah might consider attacking the US if the US becomes "a direct threat to the group or Iran, its principal sponsor."
So if Bush continues to have his way, he could have everyone in the Middle East against the US by the end of his second term. ...Well everyone except for his Oil buddies in Saudi Arabia. I think they are quite happy with what he has accomplished with the price of crude.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Never Buy BMW
Let me begin by saying that I deeply regret buying a new 2006 325 xi in January of 2006. Because I live in Manhattan, I wanted the smaller series, but loaded it with all the options. I spent close to $50K confidently because I believed the all the BMW brand hype around "German engineering" and the exceptional service the company supposedly provides.
What a mistake. Little did I know, this series and many more, are plagued with serious tire wear and noise problems. To a slightly lesser degree, I liken it to the Ford Explorer debacle a few years ago because when challenged, both companies point to the fact that tires are not covered under warranty (Ford has since changed its tune after killing many people and being sued by many, many more). I regret to say that BMW will not officially admit to me, or attempt to correct the problems around anything mentioned in this article.
From a quick Google search, I found out that my experience is not isolated. My car wears out the inside edge of every single tire that is put on it, as do many others. The tires have been properly balanced, aligned and have had the right air pressure. My car was put on “the rack” to insure the frame was straight twice in 2006. And yet each BMW employee that I have talked to try to tell me that they have never heard of any other car with similar issues to mine. This directly contradicts an internal Technical Service notice distributed internally to BMW service centers in January 2007. So I can only assume that each person I have talked to, some senior level in the service centers, are either liars or incompetent.
The very expensive performance tires I am required to run on my car all wear consistently uneven. The problem is drastic as the insides are eaten away within 7 to 10 thousand miles. The noise is deafening within a few thousand miles and the handling is also highly compromised. Within a year and a half of owning this car, I will have spent over $3K on 13 tires. Local service reps and and BMW North America agents all argue that I should expect to replace my tires every year (although I only drive my car two or three times a month), but adamantly deny that BMW is in anyway responsible for selling me a car that destroys tires and sounds like a monster truck on the highway.
Buyer Beware! People should be honest and stand behind their work and products. Stay away from BMW!!
Labels:
BMW lemon,
defective BMW,
Don't buy BMW,
faulty tires on BMW,
tire wear
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
China has the Balls to Push Mattel for an Apology - Bad Move
I cannot believe the balls some countries have. Take for example President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran coming to the US and sharing his skewed thoughts on the Holocaust. Essentially, he doesn't think it happened, but I am sure if we could convince him it did happen, he would fuly support Hitler's actions.
The next unbelievable act comes from China. This shifty country has recently pushed Mattel to publicly apologize to the world and the Chinese people for all the dangerous toys they have had to recall. These toys threaten the lives of children across the globe, but mainly in the US where we have money to burn on mountains of things to overstimulate our children.
As seen in a Sept 22 Washington Post article, Thomas Debrowski, Mattel's executive vice president for worldwide operations told Chinese product safety chief Li Changjiang that "Mattel takes full responsibility for these recalls and apologizes personally to you, the Chinese people, and all of our customers who received the toys." Mattel, with its back to the wall, was obviously coaxed into this apology because future Chinese manufacturing is critical to the survival of the company.
China's argument is that they are getting a bad rap because not all of the Mattel recalls are due to the lead paint and other toxic materials that they like to slip into US-bound products. Some recalls were due to design flaws.
China - shut up. Now is not the time to fight alligations on a global stage. So only 95% of the recalled Chinese products over the last 12 months were directly your fault? Everyday new faulty and dangerous products from China are being uncovered. As a country, you are under a microscope. You should wait until you are no longer poisoning the world, and only then ask for forgiveness, not attempt to redirect blame. Shame on you.
The next unbelievable act comes from China. This shifty country has recently pushed Mattel to publicly apologize to the world and the Chinese people for all the dangerous toys they have had to recall. These toys threaten the lives of children across the globe, but mainly in the US where we have money to burn on mountains of things to overstimulate our children.
As seen in a Sept 22 Washington Post article, Thomas Debrowski, Mattel's executive vice president for worldwide operations told Chinese product safety chief Li Changjiang that "Mattel takes full responsibility for these recalls and apologizes personally to you, the Chinese people, and all of our customers who received the toys." Mattel, with its back to the wall, was obviously coaxed into this apology because future Chinese manufacturing is critical to the survival of the company.China's argument is that they are getting a bad rap because not all of the Mattel recalls are due to the lead paint and other toxic materials that they like to slip into US-bound products. Some recalls were due to design flaws.
China - shut up. Now is not the time to fight alligations on a global stage. So only 95% of the recalled Chinese products over the last 12 months were directly your fault? Everyday new faulty and dangerous products from China are being uncovered. As a country, you are under a microscope. You should wait until you are no longer poisoning the world, and only then ask for forgiveness, not attempt to redirect blame. Shame on you.
Labels:
China,
endangering US children,
forced apology,
Iran,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Mattel,
recalls
Monday, August 20, 2007
Liberty Fights Back and Punishes Bush

Need I say more? The international community has lost almost as much respect as I have for the current President of the United States. This photo is of a float in a recent parade in Germany. I think George W Bush does deserve some form of punishment for the horrible job he has done in office and the unimaginable scaling back of liberties given to the American public. Blanket wire taps and secret courts? Sounds like Bush is stealing from Putin's playbook, not the US Constitution...
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